Kickstarting 2025: Our Economic Development newsletter
Published on 13 March 2025
Sparked an idea? Let's make it happen
If you’re working on a business idea, planning an event, or thinking about a new project that could bring jobs or skill-building opportunities, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to our team:
We’re here to help make it happen.
Have you signed up for tourism industry updates?
Destination Hauraki Coromandel, our regional tourism operator provides updates which keep our tourism industry and associated visitor-facing businesses in the loop about their activities, visitor insights, marketing activity and industry events and opportunities.
Sign up here
If you’re a tourism or hospitality business owner or manager, you might be interested in attending a half-day workshop on digital marketing. Destination Hauraki Coromandel is running this at a discounted rate for attendees in collaboration with Soda Inc. in Thames on Tuesday 8 April.
Details here
Economic summer highlights
The latest economic data for our Thames-Coromandel district reflects New Zealand’s broader economic struggles, but tourism recovery has been welcomed.
Here are the key points:
• Economic activity: Thames-Coromandel's GDP slipped 0.1% in the year to December 2024, outperforming the national average decline of 0.5%.
• Construction sector: A pullback in construction was a major factor in the economic slowdown, reflecting a transition in cyclone recovery and weak national construction activity.
• Tourism sector: Strong performance with 16% growth in tourism expenditure and guest nights, driven by restored transport links and attractions. International visitor spend grew by 33%, and domestic visitor spend by 13% (though we note this is coming off a lower base after the storm impacts).
• Employment: Overall employment fell by 1.9%, with job losses in construction and professional services. Unemployment rose to 5.2%, with a record high of 1,320 Jobseekers, particularly among 18-24-year-olds.
• Housing market: House values eased by 3.1% annually, close to the national decline of 2.0%. House sales are rising faster than new listings, but interest in new houses remains low with only 38 new dwellings consented in the December 2024 quarter.
• Non-residential construction: Healthier outlook with record high consents in the year to December 2024.
Full data release here
Digging a little deeper into available visitor spending data for the summer, we can see that tourism spend was elevated in December but dropped off in January compared to previous years. This reflects what we’ve been hearing from businesses and reflects economic struggles mixed with our positive tourism recovery.
In January 2025, visitor spending in Thames-Coromandel reached $52.4 million, surpassing December 2024's $42.1 million. Despite this, January's spending was down 5.6% compared to January 2024, with a 3% drop in the number of transactions. International visitor spending increased by 14% compared to January 2024, making up 13.7% of the total visitor spend, while domestic spending fell by 8%, comprising 86.3% of the total. The arts and recreation services and retail trade sectors experienced significant declines. The re-opening of Cathedral Cove is certainly supporting recovery in the eastern suburbs. Southern Mercury Bay saw a 30% increase in visitor transactions compared to January 2024, maintaining the uplift from December.
Kōpū Activation Project
The Economic Development Team have picked up an ‘Activation Project’ for the Kōpū Marine Precinct. The focus of this project is to drive commercial and recreational interest in the Kōpū Marine Precinct and surrounding industrial land.
More information on this project will be provided by the Economic Development team as the project progresses.
The local Kōpū business community have created a Facebook page with updates on Kōpū Wharf activity. If you are interested in following the goings on at the Kōpū Marine Precinct, click here.
What influences population?
In its simplest form population demographics in an area are influenced by ‘natural growth’ – births minus deaths, and migration – movements of people to a new place of residence.
Natural growth and migration trends combine to provide projected population numbers and demographics. Everywhere we look population shapes our communities – from our friends and daily interactions to our investment decisions to suit people’s differing infrastructure needs. It’s important we continue to keep current people at the heart of everything we do.
He aha te mea nui o te ao. He tāngata, he tāngata, he tāngata - What is the most important thing in the world? It is people, it is people, it is people.
Natural growth
In the Thames-Coromandel the natural population change continues to be negative. For the past 17 years (since 2008) more deaths than births have occurred in the district, with an average natural decline of 84 people per year over this time. This is mainly driven by an aging population. 43 per cent of residents in the district are aged over 60 years old1.
Tied to an aging population is declining birth/fertility rates. New Zealand’s fertility rate has been below replacement rate (2.1) since 2013, reaching a record-low fertility rate of 1.56 births per women in 20232. In 2023 this resulted in the lowest annual natural increase in New Zealand’s population since World War Two3.
Aotearoa is not alone in these trends. The global fertility rate in 2024 was 2.2 births per women on average, down from around 5 in the 1960s and 3.3 in 1990. Even the world’s most populous countries, including India, China, Brazil and the USA have fertility rates below replacement (2.1)4.
Of course, fertility rates are themselves influenced by many contributors including our economic system, education, birth control, national policies, and culture and values around having and welcoming children. Closely linked to these societal contributors are people’s individual values, actions and choices.
Though less babies are being born, global average life expectancy has increased by 20 years, from 51 years in 1960 to 72 years in 20225. In New Zealand a newborn can expect to live, on average, to over 80 years old6.
Overall, these trends contribute to an aging population, and in future a declining population. Global population is projected to peak in the next 50-60 years to around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, before declining into the following century7.
Migration
Migration is the other main influence on an area’s population. Economic, political, social, cultural and environmental factors all influence migration flows. Even as a base line, New Zealanders move homes on average every 8.3 years, residing in a new home locally or a migrating to a new area8.
As fertility rates are below replacement, international migration is expected to drive New Zealand’s population growth. In 50 years (by 2073) New Zealand’s population is projected to increase from the current 5.3 million to between 5.6 and 7.8 million9.
The Thames-Coromandel is experiencing the same situation. With more deaths than births, population growth in the district is driven by migration. For the past 17 years residents from other parts of New Zealand moving to the Thames-Coromandel has supported population growth. Net internal migration has averaged 380 people per year.
People also migrate from overseas to the Thames-Coromandel and vice versa. International net migration for the district over the past 17 years has averaged 80 people per year10.
Those who move to the Thames-Coromandel tend to be older. The district attracts a noticeable proportion of the over 50s who migrate within New Zealand. This contributes to the districts aging population.
A more diverse population
There is no doubt population shifts shape communities, and around the world local populations are increasingly ethnically diverse. New Zealand’s diversity is one to celebrate. More than one quarter of New Zealand’s population were born overseas11.
Continued migration sees New Zealand’s Asian population grow, while young Māori and Pacific people support a more diverse population from natural growth. The Asian population is projected to increase from 16 to 24 percent of New Zealand’s population by the early 2040s. By this same time, one in three children in New Zealand are likely to identify as tamariki Māori12.
Children are our future. In the Thames-Coromandel currently 19 percent of the resident population identify as Māori13, while 34 percent of school aged children identify as Māori. The districts Asian and Pacific population is also projected to more than double by the early 2040s14.
References
This article is part of a short series written by our Economic Development team. Dubbed ‘what influences...’ the series summarises factors and trends that influence socio-economic topics which impact our everyday lives.
- Infometrics (2024), Regional Economic Profile, Thames-Coromandel District, sources of population growth: Regional Economic Profile | Thames-Coromandel District | Overview
- Statistics New Zealand (2024), Births and deaths: Year ended December 2023 (including abridged period life table), released February 2024 https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-december-2023-including-abridged-period-life-table/
- Statistics New Zealand (2024), Lowest natural increase in 80 years, released February 2024 https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/lowest-natural-increase-in-80-years/
- United Nations (2025). World Fertility Report 2024. UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO.10. New York: United Nations.https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2025_wfr-2024_advance-unedited.pdf
- World Bank (2022), Life expectancy at birth, total (years) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN
- Statistics New Zealand (2024), Lowest natural increase in 80 years, released February 2024 https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/lowest-natural-increase-in-80-years/
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2024). World population prospectus 2024, summary of results. WPP2024_Key-Messages.pdf
- Figure.nz (2024), average number of years at usual residence in New Zealand – Census 2023 Average number of years at usual residence in New Zealand - Figure.NZ
- Statistics New Zealand (2022), National population projections: 2022(base)–2073. National population projections: 2022(base)–2073 | Stats NZ
- Infometrics (2024), Regional Economic Profile, Thames-Coromandel District, sources of population growth: Regional Economic Profile | Thames-Coromandel District | Overview
- New Zealand Productivity Commission (2020), Immigration by the numbers summary. https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2024-05/pc-inq-is-summary-immigration-by-the-numbers.pdf
- Statistics New Zealand (2022), one in three children projected to be Māori: One in three children projected to be Māori | Stats NZ
- Infometrics (2024), Regional Economic Profile, Thames-Coromandel District, Census 2023 – ethnicity: Regional Economic Profile | Thames-Coromandel District | Census | Ethnicity
- Education Counts (2024), Roll by age and ethnicity 2014-2024: School rolls | Education Counts
Tairua River Trail update
A long-awaited walking and cycle trail connecting the Pāuanui and Tairua communities is set to become a reality, with all approvals now in place.
When completed, the Tairua River Trail will create a fully off-road route between the towns via 13km of trails along the north and south banks of the river, connected by a spectacular 120-metre suspension bridge across the river near Tanners Mill joining the two sections.
A scenic and easily-accessible 6km section of trail from Pauanui waterways upstream towards Hikuai is already open, and used by tens of thousands of people a year. When the trail to Tairua is finished, walkers and cyclists will be able to complete it as a loop, connecting with local streets in each town and a short ferry across the estuary, creating a unique one-day experience.
The Hikuai District Trust is a local charitable trust overseeing the trail’s construction. Its chair, Derrick Adams, says the completed trail will become a valuable long term community asset.
“With its amazing views up and down the river, wide and mainly flat Grade 2 trail surface, and soon a bridge across the river that will make an impressive sight from nearby SH25, this is a trail the wider Eastern Coromandel community can be proud of,” Mr Adams says. "It will also be a valuable addition to the growing networks of trails around the region.
"We expect this to become known as one of Aotearoa's best one-day walks or rides, taking in a range of environments from mangroves to rolling farmland, with a few short sharp rises to keep it interesting. Our goal is not just to showcase the beautiful Tairua River estuary but to protect and enhance it for future generations, through our native planting and pest trapping operations”.
"We obtained resource consent before Christmas and final regulatory approvals in February, and preparatory work on new sections of trail on the north bank of the river is under way. We expect construction to begin in autumn, and hopefully be completed in the next few years."
In addition to the community health and wellbeing benefits, the trail is expected to bring economic opportunities from increased year-round walking and cycle tourism; conservation benefits through an extension of the existing planting and pest-trapping work; a safer off-road walking route for residents south of Tairua township; and potential future connections to other walking and cycling trails in the region.
Construction will be funded by a mix of public and private sources, with the opportunity for local organisations and individuals to support as cornerstone partners. “We’re looking for like-minded businesses and philanthropic organisations who share our enthusiasm for helping get more people out and about in our Eastern Coromandel surroundings”.
Mr Adams is also calling for individual “Trail Blazers" to support the trail by setting up regular monthly donations, in exchange for exclusive benefits. They can learn more by visiting the trail website or emailing HikuaiDistrictTrust@gmail.com.
“The trail has been community-led and fully volunteer- staffed from day one, and we’re very thankful for the ongoing public support from around the region,” he says.
“Public feedback has been overwhelmingly positive and we're grateful to TCDC, WRC, local iwi, land owners, Waka Kotahi, Environment Waikato, the local community board and many community groups for helping us get this far."
"While we ramp up construction work, we encourage locals and visitors to get out and enjoy the section of trail that’s already open along the south bank, and get in touch if they want to support.
“We have a fabulous group of volunteers from far and wide who have helped fund, build and maintain the trail for many years. If you want to get involved in any aspect of our future plans, we’d love to hear from you.”
Current work in data collection for trails
We are working towards establishing a robust data collection framework for the Mountain Biking (MTB) hubs/trails outlined in the Hauraki-Coromandel Recreational Biking Strategy. The goal is to gather relevant data to support decision-making, funding applications, trail planning, and community engagement.
Key areas of work include:
• User counting and trail usage patterns - Using trail counters, GPS tracking, and survey data to understand how often trails are used, peak times, and the distribution of users across different trails.
• Economic and social impact analysis - Collecting data on visitor spending, accommodation stays, and local business impacts related to trail users. Understanding how trails contribute to community well-being and outdoor recreation participation.
The objective is to:
• Enhance decision-making – Provide councils, community groups and funding bodies with solid evidence to guide investment in trail development, maintenance, and promotion.
• Strengthen funding applications – Use data to support grant applications, demonstrating economic and social benefits.
• Improve trail planning and infrastructure – Understand demand and identify gaps in trail networks.
• Support local businesses – Use insights to promote tourism and business opportunities around trails.

From cultural festivals to outdoor adventures, we've got a jam-packed line-up that will keep everyone busy and entertained. Read on to discover what's coming up and how you can make the most of the beautiful autumn months in the district.
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Help us measure the impact of Repco Beach Hop
Our Council is conducting an economic impact study for the 2025 Repco Beach Hop. In 2021, 1,274 enthusiastic attendees participated in our survey, providing valuable insights.
We're gathering input from event participants and spectators to better understand how this iconic summer shoulder season event affects our local economy and community. Your feedback is essential, and we’d greatly appreciate your participation in the survey.
Complete survey
Black Rock Enduro returns
Get ready for an epic day on the trails - Black Rock Enduro is back for 2025.
Hosted at Whangamatā Mountain Bike Park, now gaining recognition as one of the North Island’s premier mountain bike hubs, this year’s event offers two unique courses:
- Four stage course – A fun challenge on Whangamatā’s best Grade 4 trails.
- Six stage course – Built for those who thrive on steep, technical terrain (Grade 4/5).
With a flexible race format, riders can hit each stage as many times as they like within the allocated time and only their fastest run counts. Whether you're tackling Enduro for the first time or chasing the gnarliest lines, this event is all about fun, speed and pushing your limits.
Enter now